Do you ever wish you could predict earthquakes? From the massive Loma-Prieta quake of 1989 to the small temblors we feel, it's yet another reminder of the unstable ground we live on. Thankfully, the technology of predicting the next Big One has improved.
Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey and research
facilities around the globe are working around the clock to better alert
residents before a major quake occurs. Wireless sensors, satellite monitoring,
and instruments buried deep within the earth are all helping to monitor the
Earth's crust.
Time is not on their side, however. A study published
earlier this year suggests that it’s a 99 percent chance that California will
have one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes over the next 30 years,
and the chance that a magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years has
increased to 4.6 percent. The Hayward Fault has special significance
considering the last major "event" was in 1868. October 21 marks its
141th anniversary.
"People should realize there is a possibility that they
won't be able to drive home from work or pick up their children from
school," said Jeanne Perkins from the Association of Bay Area Governments.
"A Hayward Fault earthquake could close 1,100 roads, including 900 in Alameda
County alone."
To better understand how earthquakes work, the USGS has
constructed a new 3D computer model of the upper 20 miles of the Earth's crust
around the Bay Area. The project, which may help researchers better predict the
shaking levels of past and future earthquakes, is a joint effort of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program.
In addition, the Earthquake Hazards Program has continuous
near-real-time monitoring of earthquakes across the United States called the
Advanced National Seismic System, and across the world with the Global
Seismographic Network. Geodetic instruments measure the slower movements of the
earth's crust, while strainmeters, such as the ones on the San Andreas Fault
measure the accumulating strain.
The data collected from stations along fault lines are then
broadcast in near-real-time. The Earthquake Notification Service (ENS)
sends out text messages to subscribers, while Web sites like ShakeMaps and PAGER show earthquake
impact estimates.
So where's the Hayward Fault? The USGS has prepared nine
separate field trips complete with a map, photographs, and directions so that
residents can get a better appreciation for the fault zone.
There is also a "virtual tour" of the Hayward Fault in which users can explore the impact of 1868 Hayward earthquake using free Google Earth software. The tour is available online.
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